AI Capital Flows

Memory pricing

• The 2027 memory book is being written in hundred-billion-dollar contracts, and the first buyers have started refusing this quarter's price.

  The 2027 memory book is being written in hundred-billion-dollar contracts, and the first buyers have started refusing this quarter's.

  Weekly issue · August 31, 2026

• ADATA Q2 2026 — 46% More Revenue, 4% More Operating Profit. Read the Incremental Dollar.

  ADATA (3260.TW) Q2 2026: revenue NT$38.143B (US$1.196B, +46.15% QoQ, +197.43% YoY), gross margin 42.11%, operating margin 33.47%, net profit NT$10.768B (US$337.7M), EPS NT$32.39 (US$1.02)

  Earnings · August 25, 2026

• Winbond (2344.TW) Q2 2026 — The Revenue Line Is a Staircase, and It Steps Four Times a Year

  Winbond Q2 2026 earnings deep dive: consolidated revenue NT$59.843B (+56.4% QoQ, +184.7% YoY), 66.2% gross margin, 48.4% operating margin, net income NT$24.317B, EPS NT$5.40, first-half EPS NT$7.65

  Earnings · August 25, 2026

• The 2027 book closed while nobody was looking, and what it leaves behind is two markets: one hard-allocated through next year, one breaking on price.

  The 2027 book closed while nobody was looking, and what it leaves behind is two markets: one hard-allocated through next year, one breaking on.

  Weekly issue · August 24, 2026

• Corsair (CRSR) Q2 2026 — The Record Margin Was a Tariff Refund; the Print Underneath Is DRAM

  Corsair's record 33.2% gross margin carried a $15.6M IEEPA tariff refund worth ~500bps

  Earnings · August 20, 2026

• Nanya (2408) Q2 2026 — Flat Bits, 96 Cents on the Incremental Dollar, and the NT$346.6B Bet Against Its Own Windfall

  Nanya Technology Q2 2026 deep dive: revenue NT$82.55B (+68.2% QoQ) on bit shipments that were flat, a 79.5% gross margin, and a 96.5% incremental gross margin because COGS moved 7.3% against revenue's 68.2%

  Earnings · August 20, 2026

• Supply tightened in every lane at once this week, but forty percent of the pull on HBM and server DDR5 is phantom, and the credit clock starts in twelve weeks.

  Supply tightened in every lane at once this week, but forty percent of the pull on HBM and server DDR5 is phantom, and the credit clock starts in twelve.

  Weekly issue · August 17, 2026

• AMAT Q3 FY26 — Records Everywhere, and It Still Fell. Read the Mix.

  Applied Materials Q3 FY26, read forensically: record revenue $9.12B (+25%), record non-GAAP EPS $3.50 (+41%), record non-GAAP operating margin 34.0%, a 13th straight quarter of gross-margin expansion, and a.

  Earnings · August 13, 2026

• sandisk printed an 84.6% datacenter margin the same week idc showed pcs down 4.9% and phones down as much as 11%. the two memory demand lanes are no longer converging.

  sandisk printed an 84.6% datacenter margin the same week idc showed pcs down 4.9% and phones down as much as 11%

  Weekly issue · August 10, 2026

• AWS Q2 2026 — Reacceleration to 37%, Margin and All

  Amazon Q2 2026 earnings deep dive, AWS in focus: AWS grew 37% to $42.2B — its fastest in about five years and above a 31–33% consensus — with operating income of $16.6B at a 39.4% margin, the cleanest 'demand.

  Earnings · July 31, 2026

• CXMT IPO — The Record Debut and the Three-Year Gap Underneath It

  CXMT (ChangXin Memory) post-IPO deep dive: China's DRAM champion priced at ¥8.66, opened at ¥49.50 and traded up as much as 531% to a ~¥3.3T (~$489B) cap — the largest debut on record and, in a session.

  Earnings · July 28, 2026

• hyperscalers are signing uncapped multi-year memory contracts while published distributor data show commodity dram and nand demand that end customers are not actually placing.

  hyperscalers are signing uncapped multi-year memory contracts while published distributor data show commodity dram and nand demand that end customers are not actually.

  Weekly issue · July 20, 2026

• korea customs confirmed the ai pull is real, with semi exports up 199.5% year over year, even as a fifth of commodity dram demand turns phantom and one lender flags its first non-accrual.

  korea customs confirmed the ai pull is real, with semi exports up 199.5% year over year, even as a fifth of commodity dram demand turns phantom and one lender flags its first.

  Weekly issue · July 6, 2026

• a tier-0 micron print reset every memory lane back to up this week, and the credit-stress scare from seven days ago receded from the near-term window, leaving one commodity lane still on the clock.

  a tier-0 micron print reset every memory lane back to up this week, and the credit-stress scare from seven days ago receded from the near-term window, leaving one commodity lane still on the.

  Weekly issue · June 29, 2026

• the first half of 2026 settled the debate: ai infrastructure stopped being a capex story and became a supply story. hyperscaler spend stepped to roughly $725b for the big four, high-end memory sold out into 2027, and the binding constraint moved from chips to power — one industry now running two clocks at once.

  a 1h'26 review: ai infrastructure became a supply story — hyperscaler capex stepped to ~$725b for the big four, high-end memory sold out into 2027, and the binding constraint moved from chips to power, leaving.

  Weekly issue · June 22, 2026

• No vendor moves before Micron prints on June 24. Beneath the freeze, server DDR5 and HBM keep tightening on $830B hyperscaler capex while client memory carries phantom pull-forward.

  No vendor moves before Micron prints on June 24

  Weekly issue · June 14, 2026

• The memory upcycle is splitting in two: hyperscaler and enterprise demand stays firm against tight supply while the consumer commodity tier quietly unwinds beneath the same DDR5 label.

  The memory upcycle is splitting in two: hyperscaler and enterprise demand stays firm against tight supply while the consumer commodity tier quietly unwinds beneath the same DDR5.

  Weekly issue · June 8, 2026

• CXMT Pre-IPO — China's DRAM Champion Comes to Market

  CXMT (ChangXin Memory) pre-IPO deep dive: the record ¥29.5B STAR Market listing, a three-year loss-maker that turned a ¥24.8B single-quarter profit, the DRAM super-cycle, and how the memory complex reads it

  Earnings · June 3, 2026

• Durable AI-led strength, but a softening commodity tape and a credit cascade risk that the data can no longer ignore.

  A daily synthesis of credit, demand, and capex cascades

  Weekly issue · May 27, 2026