AI Capital Flows

Memory pricing

• Nanya (2408) Q3 2026 — The Rent Went Under Contract, and One More Quarter Pays for Fab 5A

  Nanya Technology Q3 2026 deep dive: revenue NT$133.65B (+61.9% QoQ) on bit shipments down mid-single digits, ASP up more than 60% on renewed long-term agreements, 85.7% gross margin, AI infrastructure above 20% of revenue, and net cash of NT$270.1B against the NT$346.6B Fab 5A first phase. Not investment advice

  Earnings · October 12, 2026

• AI memory repriced for 2027 this week while the consumer channel turned down; HBM is the one clean up-signal, and the October 7-8 spot reopen tests everything else.

  AI memory repriced for 2027 this week while the consumer channel turned down; HBM is the one clean up-signal, and the October 7-8 spot reopen tests everything else

  Weekly issue · October 5, 2026

• Micron Q4 FY26: The Customers Put Up More Than the Capex

  Micron Q4 FY26, read forensically: revenue $54.23B in a 14-week quarter, non-GAAP EPS $33.42, and a $61.5B guide. Customers deposited $12.3B behind their take-or-pay agreements, more than the $10.77B of net capex, repayable in the back half of each term

  Earnings · September 30, 2026

• The pipeline ran two nights of seven this week, so the split between the server lane and the consumer lane is still there and nothing in it can be tested.

  The pipeline ran two nights of seven this week, so the split between the server lane and the consumer lane is still there and nothing in it can be tested

  Weekly issue · September 21, 2026

• The two-speed market hardened again this week, but the more consequential move was five observation lanes closing at once, which is why the September 10 Taiwan distributor print now outranks any price.

  The two-speed market hardened again this week, but the more consequential move was five observation lanes closing at once, which is why the September 10 Taiwan distributor print now outranks any price

  Weekly issue · September 7, 2026

• The 2027 memory book is being written in hundred-billion-dollar contracts, and the first buyers have started refusing this quarter's price.

  The 2027 memory book is being written in hundred-billion-dollar contracts, and the first buyers have started refusing this quarter's price

  Weekly issue · August 31, 2026

• Winbond (2344.TW) Q2 2026 — The Revenue Line Is a Staircase, and It Steps Four Times a Year

  Winbond Q2 2026 earnings deep dive: consolidated revenue NT$59.843B (+56.4% QoQ, +184.7% YoY), 66.2% gross margin, 48.4% operating margin, net income NT$24.317B, EPS NT$5.40, first-half EPS NT$7.65

  Earnings · August 25, 2026

• The 2027 book closed while nobody was looking, and what it leaves behind is two markets: one hard-allocated through next year, one breaking on price.

  The 2027 book closed while nobody was looking, and what it leaves behind is two markets: one hard-allocated through next year, one breaking on price

  Weekly issue · August 24, 2026

• Corsair (CRSR) Q2 2026 — The Record Margin Was a Tariff Refund; the Print Underneath Is DRAM

  Corsair's record 33.2% gross margin carried a $15.6M IEEPA tariff refund worth ~500bps. Strip it and the quarter was a $5.7M GAAP net loss

  Earnings · August 20, 2026

• Nanya (2408) Q2 2026 — Flat Bits, 96 Cents on the Incremental Dollar, and the NT$346.6B Bet Against Its Own Windfall

  Nanya Technology Q2 2026 deep dive: revenue NT$82.55B (+68.2% QoQ) on bit shipments that were flat, a 79.5% gross margin, and a 96.5% incremental gross margin because COGS moved 7.3% against revenue's 68.2%. The margin is a rent on capacity the top three abandoned — and the board has now committed up to NT$346.6B to Fab 5A, EUV included

  Earnings · August 20, 2026

• Team Group Q2 2026 — Record EPS on 16% Less Revenue. In a Shortage, That's a Choice.

  Team Group (4967.TW) Q2 2026: revenue NT$7.588B (−16.11% QoQ, +66.18% YoY), net profit NT$2.412B, EPS NT$26.47 — a record. In the same quarter ADATA grew revenue 46.15% QoQ

  Earnings · August 20, 2026

• Supply tightened in every lane at once this week, but forty percent of the pull on HBM and server DDR5 is phantom, and the credit clock starts in twelve weeks.

  Supply tightened in every lane at once this week, but forty percent of the pull on HBM and server DDR5 is phantom, and the credit clock starts in twelve weeks

  Weekly issue · August 17, 2026

• AMAT Q3 FY26 — Records Everywhere, and It Still Fell. Read the Mix.

  Applied Materials Q3 FY26, read forensically: record revenue $9.12B (+25%), record non-GAAP EPS $3.50 (+41%), record non-GAAP operating margin 34.0%, a 13th straight quarter of gross-margin expansion, and a record Q4 guide of $10.25B / $4.02. And the stock fell after hours

  Earnings · August 13, 2026

• sandisk printed an 84.6% datacenter margin the same week idc showed pcs down 4.9% and phones down as much as 11%. the two memory demand lanes are no longer converging.

  sandisk printed an 84.6% datacenter margin the same week idc showed pcs down 4.9% and phones down as much as 11%. the two memory demand lanes are no longer converging

  Weekly issue · August 10, 2026

• AWS Q2 2026 — Reacceleration to 37%, Margin and All

  Amazon Q2 2026 earnings deep dive, AWS in focus: AWS grew 37% to $42.2B — its fastest in about five years and above a 31–33% consensus — with operating income of $16.6B at a 39.4% margin, the cleanest 'demand justifies the capex' answer of the three hyperscalers; shares jumped ~7% after hours

  Earnings · July 31, 2026

• SK hynix Q2 2026 — Record Margin, and the Contract Behind the Miss

  SK hynix Q2 2026 earnings deep dive: record revenue of KRW 79.3T (+257% YoY) and operating profit of KRW 60.5T at an all-time-high 76% operating margin (+557% YoY) — yet the shares fell ~10% because the record still landed below a stretched consensus and the rate of price increase normalized

  Earnings · July 30, 2026

• CXMT IPO — The Record Debut and the Three-Year Gap Underneath It

  CXMT (ChangXin Memory) post-IPO deep dive: China's DRAM champion priced at ¥8.66, opened at ¥49.50 and traded up as much as 531% to a ~¥3.3T (~$489B) cap — the largest debut on record and, in a session, China's most valuable listed company on a 6.73% float

  Earnings · July 28, 2026

• hyperscalers are signing uncapped multi-year memory contracts while published distributor data show commodity dram and nand demand that end customers are not actually placing.

  hyperscalers are signing uncapped multi-year memory contracts while published distributor data show commodity dram and nand demand that end customers are not actually placing

  Weekly issue · July 20, 2026

• korea customs confirmed the ai pull is real, with semi exports up 199.5% year over year, even as a fifth of commodity dram demand turns phantom and one lender flags its first non-accrual.

  korea customs confirmed the ai pull is real, with semi exports up 199.5% year over year, even as a fifth of commodity dram demand turns phantom and one lender flags its first non-accrual

  Weekly issue · July 6, 2026

• a tier-0 micron print reset every memory lane back to up this week, and the credit-stress scare from seven days ago receded from the near-term window, leaving one commodity lane still on the clock.

  a tier-0 micron print reset every memory lane back to up this week, and the credit-stress scare from seven days ago receded from the near-term window, leaving one commodity lane still on the clock

  Weekly issue · June 29, 2026

• the first half of 2026 settled the debate: ai infrastructure stopped being a capex story and became a supply story. hyperscaler spend stepped to roughly $725b for the big four, high-end memory sold out into 2027, and the binding constraint moved from chips to power — one industry now running two clocks at once.

  a 1h'26 review: ai infrastructure became a supply story — hyperscaler capex stepped to ~$725b for the big four, high-end memory sold out into 2027, and the binding constraint moved from chips to power, leaving one industry running two clocks at once

  Weekly issue · June 22, 2026

• No vendor moves before Micron prints on June 24. Beneath the freeze, server DDR5 and HBM keep tightening on $830B hyperscaler capex while client memory carries phantom pull-forward.

  No vendor moves before Micron prints on June 24. Beneath the freeze, server DDR5 and HBM keep tightening on $830B hyperscaler capex while client memory carries phantom pull-forward

  Weekly issue · June 14, 2026

• The memory upcycle is splitting in two: hyperscaler and enterprise demand stays firm against tight supply while the consumer commodity tier quietly unwinds beneath the same DDR5 label.

  The memory upcycle is splitting in two: hyperscaler and enterprise demand stays firm against tight supply while the consumer commodity tier quietly unwinds beneath the same DDR5 label

  Weekly issue · June 8, 2026

• CXMT Pre-IPO — China's DRAM Champion Comes to Market

  CXMT (ChangXin Memory) pre-IPO deep dive: the record ¥29.5B STAR Market listing, a three-year loss-maker that turned a ¥24.8B single-quarter profit, the DRAM super-cycle, and how the memory complex reads it. Not investment advice

  Earnings · June 3, 2026

• Durable AI-led strength, but a softening commodity tape and a credit cascade risk that the data can no longer ignore.

  A daily synthesis of credit, demand, and capex cascades. Receipts published weekly

  Weekly issue · May 27, 2026