Earnings

Single-event deep dives. One company, one print, the read in tkal voice. Coverage spans Tier A semi & compute (AMD, ASML, Marvell, Broadcom, NVIDIA, TSMC, Intel, Applied Materials), Tier M memory (Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix, Kioxia, SanDisk), Tier B hyperscalers & AI (Microsoft, Amazon/AWS, Alphabet, Meta, Oracle, NVIDIA — plus milestone coverage of xAI/Grok, OpenAI, SpaceX, and Anthropic), Tier P power & datacenter energy (Constellation, Vistra, Vertiv), Tier K cyber (CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Zscaler), Tier W software & AI app layer (Palantir, ServiceNow), Tier E construction & EPC (MasTec, EMCOR, Comfort Systems, Sterling), and Tier C credit + REITs (Apollo, Blackstone, Ares, Blue Owl, Equinix, Digital Realty). Every figure is sourced; anything not in the filing is marked unverified.

Read public previews here, then continue to Substack for full paid earnings analysis. YouTube recaps remain free. Earlier research is grouped below by reporting quarter and sector.

Ch. 1/2 · foundry and equipment · week of Oct 12, 2026youtube.com/@tkalnews

Ch. 2/2 · memory · week of Oct 12, 2026youtube.com/@tkalnews

Latest prints

SPCX Q3 2026 · The First Operating Profit Is a 48-Day Number

Super Intelligence earned $431M of operating income, the segment’s first operating profit as a public company, with only 48 days of a $1.217B Cursor stock charge inside it; revenue was $14.58B, up 161%. At the Q3 run-rate a full quarter of the charge is about $2.33B. Q4 2026 SI income from operations above zero confirms the rental business outgrew it; an SI operating loss refutes it. Period ended Sep 30, 2026.

October 21, 2026
YMTC Pre-IPO · One Quarter Nearly Cleared the Deficit, and the Tax Holiday Hasn't Started

YMTC’s 1Q26 attributable profit of RMB 33.38B was 2.35x all of 2025 and erased 90.75% of the accumulated deficit at a 0.11% tax rate, ahead of a ten-year IC exemption it has not started using. 63.28% of NAND revenue was booked outside mainland China, but sell-through fell to 82.40%. Quarters after Q1 averaging above RMB 47.04B of revenue confirm the warehouse was held for price; below refutes it. Period ended Mar 31, 2026.

October 16, 2026
TSMC Q3 2026 · Wafers Up 3.2%, Revenue Up 16.2%: The Biggest Dollar Quarter in the Series Was Priced, Not Shipped

TSMC added US$6.52B of revenue on the quarter, the largest sequential dollar increase since 4Q23, on 3.2% more wafers: revenue per wafer shipped rose to about US$10,438 (+12.6%) as 2nm reached 8% of wafer revenue, and the same mix cost 1.3 points of gross margin. 4Q26 revenue per wafer shipped above US$10,438 confirms the mix shift is still running; below refutes it. Period ended Sep 30, 2026.

October 15, 2026
Taiwan monthly revenue · September 2026 · The Quarter Closed on the Tread. The Module Houses Filed Price and Shipped Less.

Every one of the 1,967 companies listed in Taipei filed September revenue, and this edition reads all of them at once: NT$6,599.6B, up 46.8% on the year and 8.6% on the month. The 207-name semiconductor group filed NT$1,018.3B (US$31.6B), up 58.9% on the year and 0.3% on the month, with TSMC NT$511.9B of it and down 0.6% on August. The twelve memory names filed NT$150.2B, +314.3% year on year and +1.3% month on month, which is the third month of the tread. Inside: the memory fabs at +2.0% on the month on demand filings, Phison the one memory name that filed shipments and price together, four module brands that all filed price while ADATA fell 16.9%, the AI-server ODMs down on the month after August’s spike, WPG up 54.4% in a month, and the November filing that decides whether October is a riser. Filings for September 2026 · collected from the exchange feed.

October 15, 2026
asml Q3 2026 · The Order Book Moved to the Balance Sheet: €5.73B More in Customer Advances for Tools Due After 2027

ASML’s release has no bookings line, so read the balance sheet: non-current contract liabilities, customer advances for tools due more than a year out, went from €3.57B to €9.30B in one quarter, 1.65x the highest year-end since 2018, as management said 2027 and 2028 supply will fall short. The line holding above €5.63B on the Q4 balance sheet confirms a standing order book; below refutes it. Period ended Sep 27, 2026.

October 14, 2026
amat Investor Breakfast (SEMICON West) 2026 · Applied Materials at SEMICON West — 54 Percent by 2030, Two Points of Share, and No Number for Next Year

Applied Materials' October 13 SEMICON West investor breakfast set 2030 targets of about 54 percent gross margin, 40 percent operating margin and more than 2 points of WFE share, and gave no number for next year; the stock fell 6.69 percent. Read against the Q3 FY26 piece: the mix read is now policy, and the share target is a recovery. Period ended Oct 13, 2026.

October 13, 2026
nanya Q3 2026 · The Rent Went Under Contract, and One More Quarter Pays for Fab 5A

Nanya grew revenue 61.9% on fewer bits because price rose more than 60%, and the deck says that price now comes from renewed long-term agreements. Net cash of NT$270.1B plus one more quarter of free cash flow covers 99.6% of the Fab 5A first phase. October–December monthly revenue averaging above NT$44.55B confirms the contract rent; below refutes it. Period ended Sep 30, 2026.

October 12, 2026
marvell Investor Day 2026 · Marvell Investor Day — $20 Billion Next Year, $70 to $90 Billion by Fiscal 2031, and a Long-Term Gross Margin That Tops Out at Today's

Marvell's October 6 Investor Day raised fiscal 2028 to about $20 billion, laid out a connectivity-led $70 to $90 billion fiscal 2031 framework with EPS above $30, and, per one account, a long-term gross margin of 56 to 59 percent whose top is today's number. Read against the Q2 FY27 piece: the company conceded the gross line and bet the model on the opex line. Period ended Oct 6, 2026.

October 6, 2026