SPCX Post-IPO — the passive bid masks a December supply cliff

The setup

There is no earnings print here — SpaceX's first quarterly report as a public company isn't due until September 2, 2026. So why publish now? Because the two trading days since the IPO carry information the S-1 did not: a clearing price, a day-one market cap that ranks the company seventh-largest in the world, and — as of this morning — a passive-index bid that nobody had to wait a quarter for.

SpaceX priced 555.6 million shares at $135 after the close on June 11, raising $75 billion — the biggest IPO ever recorded, eclipsing Saudi Aramco's 2019 debut. The greenshoe gives underwriters another 83.3 million shares (~$11B) at the offer price. The stock opened June 12 at $150 and closed at $160.95, up 19.2%, for a market cap of roughly $2.1 trillion.

The numbers

The S-1 gave the first real look at the business. FY2025 consolidated revenue was $18.7B, up 33% from $14.1B in 2024. The company ran a $2.6B loss from operations and a $4.9B net loss, but generated $6.6B of adjusted EBITDA — the gap between those two figures is the entire bull/bear argument in one line.

The mix is lopsided. Starlink is now ~61% of revenue at $11.4B, throwing off $7B of segment EBITDA at a 63% margin. The Space segment — launch plus NASA crew services — did $4B and absorbed ~$3B of R&D on Starship (cumulative Starship spend is north of $15B). Starlink subscribers more than doubled in 2025, from 4.4M to 8.9M, reaching 10.3M by end of March 2026.