AI Capital Flows

HBM

• CXMT H1 2026 — The Plant Predates the Windfall. The Next Build Has Already Started.

  CXMT H1 2026 deep dive: revenue RMB 150.31B (+873.64%), net profit attributable RMB 77.61B, an 84.84% main-business gross margin — earned on a plant built between 2022 and 2024, when capex peaked at RMB.

  Earnings · August 31, 2026

• The 2027 book closed while nobody was looking, and what it leaves behind is two markets: one hard-allocated through next year, one breaking on price.

  The 2027 book closed while nobody was looking, and what it leaves behind is two markets: one hard-allocated through next year, one breaking on.

  Weekly issue · August 24, 2026

• Nanya (2408) Q2 2026 — Flat Bits, 96 Cents on the Incremental Dollar, and the NT$346.6B Bet Against Its Own Windfall

  Nanya Technology Q2 2026 deep dive: revenue NT$82.55B (+68.2% QoQ) on bit shipments that were flat, a 79.5% gross margin, and a 96.5% incremental gross margin because COGS moved 7.3% against revenue's 68.2%

  Earnings · August 20, 2026

• Supply tightened in every lane at once this week, but forty percent of the pull on HBM and server DDR5 is phantom, and the credit clock starts in twelve weeks.

  Supply tightened in every lane at once this week, but forty percent of the pull on HBM and server DDR5 is phantom, and the credit clock starts in twelve.

  Weekly issue · August 17, 2026

• Samsung Q2 2026 — The Semiconductor Division Was the Company

  Samsung Electronics Q2 2026 earnings deep dive: record consolidated revenue of KRW 171.5T (+28% QoQ) and an all-time-high KRW 89.5T operating profit — up roughly 18x YoY at a 52% margin — of which the.

  Earnings · July 30, 2026

• SK hynix Q2 2026 — Record Margin, and the Contract Behind the Miss

  SK hynix Q2 2026 earnings deep dive: record revenue of KRW 79.3T (+257% YoY) and operating profit of KRW 60.5T at an all-time-high 76% operating margin (+557% YoY) — yet the shares fell ~10% because the record.

  Earnings · July 30, 2026

• sk hynix locked its hbm4 output to nvidia for $500 billion in the same week that pc shipments fell 4.9% and a bdc lender went non-accrual, so the deficit and the cracks are now both hard data.

  sk hynix locked its hbm4 output to nvidia for $500 billion in the same week that pc shipments fell 4.9% and a bdc lender went non-accrual, so the deficit and the cracks are now both hard.

  Weekly issue · July 27, 2026

• hyperscalers are signing uncapped multi-year memory contracts while published distributor data show commodity dram and nand demand that end customers are not actually placing.

  hyperscalers are signing uncapped multi-year memory contracts while published distributor data show commodity dram and nand demand that end customers are not actually.

  Weekly issue · July 20, 2026

• No vendor moves before Micron prints on June 24. Beneath the freeze, server DDR5 and HBM keep tightening on $830B hyperscaler capex while client memory carries phantom pull-forward.

  No vendor moves before Micron prints on June 24

  Weekly issue · June 14, 2026