AI Capital Flows

HBM

• The book went defensive this week: 2027 HBM4 is the only buy left, provisional and low conviction, while consumer memory softens and credit offers no tie-breaker.

  The book went defensive this week: 2027 HBM4 is the only buy left, provisional and low conviction, while consumer memory softens and credit offers no tie-breaker

  Weekly issue · October 12, 2026

• AI memory repriced for 2027 this week while the consumer channel turned down; HBM is the one clean up-signal, and the October 7-8 spot reopen tests everything else.

  AI memory repriced for 2027 this week while the consumer channel turned down; HBM is the one clean up-signal, and the October 7-8 spot reopen tests everything else

  Weekly issue · October 5, 2026

• CXMT H1 2026 — The Plant Predates the Windfall. The Next Build Has Already Started.

  CXMT H1 2026 deep dive: revenue RMB 150.31B (+873.64%), net profit attributable RMB 77.61B, an 84.84% main-business gross margin — earned on a plant built between 2022 and 2024, when capex peaked at RMB 71.23B. The forensic read on a price margin, a build cycle at its trough, and 192 pages that never say HBM

  Earnings · August 31, 2026

• The 2027 book closed while nobody was looking, and what it leaves behind is two markets: one hard-allocated through next year, one breaking on price.

  The 2027 book closed while nobody was looking, and what it leaves behind is two markets: one hard-allocated through next year, one breaking on price

  Weekly issue · August 24, 2026

• Nanya (2408) Q2 2026 — Flat Bits, 96 Cents on the Incremental Dollar, and the NT$346.6B Bet Against Its Own Windfall

  Nanya Technology Q2 2026 deep dive: revenue NT$82.55B (+68.2% QoQ) on bit shipments that were flat, a 79.5% gross margin, and a 96.5% incremental gross margin because COGS moved 7.3% against revenue's 68.2%. The margin is a rent on capacity the top three abandoned — and the board has now committed up to NT$346.6B to Fab 5A, EUV included

  Earnings · August 20, 2026

• Supply tightened in every lane at once this week, but forty percent of the pull on HBM and server DDR5 is phantom, and the credit clock starts in twelve weeks.

  Supply tightened in every lane at once this week, but forty percent of the pull on HBM and server DDR5 is phantom, and the credit clock starts in twelve weeks

  Weekly issue · August 17, 2026

• Samsung Q2 2026 — The Semiconductor Division Was the Company

  Samsung Electronics Q2 2026 earnings deep dive: record consolidated revenue of KRW 171.5T (+28% QoQ) and an all-time-high KRW 89.5T operating profit — up roughly 18x YoY at a 52% margin — of which the semiconductor (DS) division alone produced KRW 89.2T at a 70% margin

  Earnings · July 30, 2026

• SK hynix Q2 2026 — Record Margin, and the Contract Behind the Miss

  SK hynix Q2 2026 earnings deep dive: record revenue of KRW 79.3T (+257% YoY) and operating profit of KRW 60.5T at an all-time-high 76% operating margin (+557% YoY) — yet the shares fell ~10% because the record still landed below a stretched consensus and the rate of price increase normalized

  Earnings · July 30, 2026

• sk hynix locked its hbm4 output to nvidia for $500 billion in the same week that pc shipments fell 4.9% and a bdc lender went non-accrual, so the deficit and the cracks are now both hard data.

  sk hynix locked its hbm4 output to nvidia for $500 billion in the same week that pc shipments fell 4.9% and a bdc lender went non-accrual, so the deficit and the cracks are now both hard data

  Weekly issue · July 27, 2026

• hyperscalers are signing uncapped multi-year memory contracts while published distributor data show commodity dram and nand demand that end customers are not actually placing.

  hyperscalers are signing uncapped multi-year memory contracts while published distributor data show commodity dram and nand demand that end customers are not actually placing

  Weekly issue · July 20, 2026

• No vendor moves before Micron prints on June 24. Beneath the freeze, server DDR5 and HBM keep tightening on $830B hyperscaler capex while client memory carries phantom pull-forward.

  No vendor moves before Micron prints on June 24. Beneath the freeze, server DDR5 and HBM keep tightening on $830B hyperscaler capex while client memory carries phantom pull-forward

  Weekly issue · June 14, 2026