AI Capital Flows

Hyperscaler capex

• Hyperscalers are pulling enterprise SSDs at 16-week lead times while China traders dump hoarded wafers at January prices, and Micron's September 30 print is the first first-party test of which side holds.

  Hyperscalers are pulling enterprise SSDs at 16-week lead times while China traders dump hoarded wafers at January prices, and Micron's September 30 print is the first first-party test of which side holds

  Weekly issue · September 28, 2026

• CSCO Q4 FY26 — Cisco Beat, Raised, and Fell. The Margin Explains Why.

  Cisco Q4 FY26, read forensically: revenue $17.3B (+18%), non-GAAP EPS $1.22 vs a ~$1.17 Street, $9.3B of hyperscaler AI orders, and an FY27 guide of $72.2–73.4B above consensus — a textbook beat-and-raise. And the stock fell ~4% after hours

  Earnings · August 12, 2026

• META Q2 2026 — The Ad Engine Beat; the Capex Bill Has No Backlog

  Meta Q2 2026 earnings deep dive: advertising grew 27% to $59.4B on +14% impressions and +12% price, yet EPS missed at $6.18 and free cash flow collapsed 91% to $784M on $31.1B of capex. The one hyperscaler spending at this scale with no cloud revenue and no contracted backlog behind the build

  Earnings · August 3, 2026

• AWS Q2 2026 — Reacceleration to 37%, Margin and All

  Amazon Q2 2026 earnings deep dive, AWS in focus: AWS grew 37% to $42.2B — its fastest in about five years and above a 31–33% consensus — with operating income of $16.6B at a 39.4% margin, the cleanest 'demand justifies the capex' answer of the three hyperscalers; shares jumped ~7% after hours

  Earnings · July 31, 2026

• MSFT FY26 Q4 — Azure Clears $100B, and the Capex Raise Gets Rewarded

  Microsoft FY26 Q4 earnings deep dive: revenue $90.0B (+18%), Azure +43% past $100B annual, Microsoft Cloud $59.3B, commercial RPO $678B (+84%), EPS $4.74 non-GAAP — and, unlike Alphabet a week earlier, the market rewarded a rising capex outlook (~+9% after hours) because demand is capacity-constrained

  Earnings · July 30, 2026

• GOOGL Q2 2026 — The Cloud Reaccelerates, the Capex Bill Reprices

  Alphabet Q2 2026 earnings deep dive: Cloud grew 82% to $24.8B, the backlog jumped past $514B, and operating income rose 30% — yet the stock derated ~15% after Alphabet lifted 2026 capex to $195–205B and told the Street 2027 goes higher. The numbers, the cash-conversion tell, the peer read-through, and the listed-market read-through

  Earnings · July 27, 2026

• hyperscalers are signing uncapped multi-year memory contracts while published distributor data show commodity dram and nand demand that end customers are not actually placing.

  hyperscalers are signing uncapped multi-year memory contracts while published distributor data show commodity dram and nand demand that end customers are not actually placing

  Weekly issue · July 20, 2026

• the first half of 2026 settled the debate: ai infrastructure stopped being a capex story and became a supply story. hyperscaler spend stepped to roughly $725b for the big four, high-end memory sold out into 2027, and the binding constraint moved from chips to power — one industry now running two clocks at once.

  a 1h'26 review: ai infrastructure became a supply story — hyperscaler capex stepped to ~$725b for the big four, high-end memory sold out into 2027, and the binding constraint moved from chips to power, leaving one industry running two clocks at once

  Weekly issue · June 22, 2026

• No vendor moves before Micron prints on June 24. Beneath the freeze, server DDR5 and HBM keep tightening on $830B hyperscaler capex while client memory carries phantom pull-forward.

  No vendor moves before Micron prints on June 24. Beneath the freeze, server DDR5 and HBM keep tightening on $830B hyperscaler capex while client memory carries phantom pull-forward

  Weekly issue · June 14, 2026

• Oracle Q4 FY26 — The Backlog Compounds, the Funding Bill Arrives

  Oracle Q4 FY26 earnings deep dive: RPO grew $85B in one quarter to $638B, OCI grew 93%, FY27 guidance held at $90B — yet the stock fell hard after hours on $55.7B of capex, negative free cash flow, and a $20B equity raise. The numbers, the funding math, the peer read-through, and the listed-market read-through

  Earnings · June 10, 2026

• The memory upcycle is splitting in two: hyperscaler and enterprise demand stays firm against tight supply while the consumer commodity tier quietly unwinds beneath the same DDR5 label.

  The memory upcycle is splitting in two: hyperscaler and enterprise demand stays firm against tight supply while the consumer commodity tier quietly unwinds beneath the same DDR5 label

  Weekly issue · June 8, 2026