AI Capital Flows

Foundry & equipment

• TSMC Q3 2026 — Wafers Up 3.2%, Revenue Up 16.2%: The Biggest Dollar Quarter in the Series Was Priced, Not Shipped

  TSMC Q3 2026 deep dive: US$46.72B revenue (+16.2% QoQ, above the US$44.6–45.8B guide) on 3.2% more wafers; revenue per wafer shipped about US$10,438, +12.6%; gross margin 66.4% as 2nm reached 8% of wafer revenue; 4Q26 guide US$52.3–54.3B

  Earnings · October 15, 2026

• Taiwan monthly revenue · September 2026 — The Quarter Closed on the Tread. The Module Houses Filed Price and Shipped Less.

  Taiwan monthly revenue, September 2026, all 1,967 listed companies collected from the exchange feed: NT$6,599.6B (+46.8% YoY, +8.6% MoM). The 207-name semiconductor group filed NT$1,018.3B (US$31.6B, +58.9% YoY, +0.3% MoM), TSMC NT$511.9B (+54.6%, 50.3% of the group), and the twelve-name memory basket NT$150.2B (+314.3% YoY, +1.3% MoM)

  Earnings · October 15, 2026

• ASML Q3 2026 — The Order Book Moved to the Balance Sheet: €5.73B More in Customer Advances for Tools Due After 2027

  ASML Q3 2026 deep dive: €11.66B sales (+55.2% YoY), 57.5% gross margin, and non-current contract liabilities up from €3.57B to €9.30B — 1.65x the highest year-end since 2018 — as management says 2027 and 2028 supply will not fully meet demand. Not investment advice

  Earnings · October 14, 2026

• Applied Materials at SEMICON West — 54 Percent by 2030, Two Points of Share, and No Number for Next Year

  Applied Materials' October 13 SEMICON West investor breakfast set 2030 targets of about 54 percent gross margin, 40 percent operating margin and more than 2 points of WFE share, and gave no number for next year; the stock fell 6.69 percent. Read against the Q3 FY26 piece: the mix read is now policy, and the share target is a recovery

  Earnings · October 13, 2026

• Taiwan monthly revenue · August 2026 — Two Clocks. The Year Reads Supercycle, the Month Reads Plateau.

  Taiwan monthly revenue, August 2026, all 1,972 listed companies collected from the exchange feed: NT$6,186B (US$194B, +50.0% YoY). The 206-name semiconductor group filed NT$1,015B (+64.3% YoY, +8.5% MoM), TSMC NT$514.8B (+53.3%, 50.7% of the group), and the ten-name memory basket NT$147.4B (+360.5% YoY, +3.6% MoM)

  Earnings · September 15, 2026

• Nanya (2408) Q2 2026 — Flat Bits, 96 Cents on the Incremental Dollar, and the NT$346.6B Bet Against Its Own Windfall

  Nanya Technology Q2 2026 deep dive: revenue NT$82.55B (+68.2% QoQ) on bit shipments that were flat, a 79.5% gross margin, and a 96.5% incremental gross margin because COGS moved 7.3% against revenue's 68.2%. The margin is a rent on capacity the top three abandoned — and the board has now committed up to NT$346.6B to Fab 5A, EUV included

  Earnings · August 20, 2026

• AMAT Q3 FY26 — Records Everywhere, and It Still Fell. Read the Mix.

  Applied Materials Q3 FY26, read forensically: record revenue $9.12B (+25%), record non-GAAP EPS $3.50 (+41%), record non-GAAP operating margin 34.0%, a 13th straight quarter of gross-margin expansion, and a record Q4 guide of $10.25B / $4.02. And the stock fell after hours

  Earnings · August 13, 2026

• TSMC Q2 2026 — The Node Everyone Needs Just Sold Out

  TSMC Q2 2026 earnings deep dive: record $40.2B revenue and an all-time-high 67.7% gross margin, net income +77% — but the tell is capex raised to $60–64B and an N2 node already outrunning supply before it ramps. The numbers, the peer read, valuation, and the listed-market read-through

  Earnings · July 17, 2026

• ASML Q2 2026 — The IBM Beat and the Capacity Double-Down

  ASML Q2 2026 earnings deep dive: €9.3B sales and a 54% gross margin, both above guide, but the beat was service — and the real signal is a 30% litho-capacity add for 2027. The numbers, the peer read, valuation, and the listed-market read-through

  Earnings · July 16, 2026