tkal · Winbond Q3 2026: One Quarter Earned 2.22x Its Best Year. All of It Was Price, on Fewer Bits.

Winbond Q3 2026: One Quarter Earned 2.22x Its Best Year. All of It Was Price, on Fewer Bits.

Winbond's third-quarter revenue rose 37.6% to NT$82.33B on price alone: CMS bits fell, Flash bits were flat, and the DRAM it made at full utilization but did not ship became a NT$3.60B inventory build while depreciation more than doubled. Our call is that the fourth-quarter contract step lands: October revenue at least NT$31.07B and Q4 at least NT$93.22B; October below September's NT$28.25B refutes it.

Published November 3, 2026 · Post-print analysis · Winbond Electronics Corp. (華邦電子) · TWSE: 2344 · Q3 2026, three months ended September 30, 2026, reported November 3, 2026 at the 15:00 Taipei investor conference · Committed analyst read — not advice

The setup

Winbond's third quarter was all price, and our call is that the fourth-quarter contract step lands: October revenue, filed by November 10, at least 10% above September's NT$28.25B, that is NT$31.07B, and October–December revenue of at least NT$93.22B. October below September refutes it. Revenue rose 37.6% to NT$82.33B while CMS bit shipments fell by a high-single-digit percentage and Flash bits were flat. The memory the fabs made at about 100% utilization but did not ship sat on the balance sheet as a NT$3.60B inventory build.

Winbond Electronics (華邦電, 2344.TW) reported on November 3, 2026, at its 15:00 Taipei investor conference. Consolidated revenue was NT$82.33B (~US$2.57B at ~31.99 NT$/US$, the deck's third-quarter average, approximate), up 37.6% on the quarter and 278.2% on the year. Gross profit was NT$58.10B (~US$1.82B), a 70.6% margin, against 66.2% in the second quarter and 46.7% a year ago. Operating profit was NT$43.78B (~US$1.37B), a 53.2% margin. Net income attributable to the parent was NT$35.42B (~US$1.11B), up 45.7% on the quarter, and EPS was NT$7.58 (~US$0.24). Nine-month EPS is NT$15.32.

Put the quarter against the company's own history before reading anything else. The deck's corporate-value slide lists annual EPS of NT$3.41 for 2021, NT$3.23 for 2022, a loss of NT$0.29 for 2023, NT$0.14 for 2024 and NT$0.88 for 2025. One quarter earned 2.22 times the best full year in that series. Nine-month EBITDA of NT$101.55B is 3.38 times the NT$30.09B of 2021. This is not a good year for Winbond. It is another company's income statement on Winbond's letterhead. The question the print raises is how much of it is the plant and how much is the price.

The answer in the deck is unusually plain. Revenue in the memory business, 90.2% of the company, rose on price alone. The Customized Memory Solution line (CMS, the DRAM business under its new name) grew 50% on the quarter with blended ASP up "approx. sixties%" in US dollars and bits shipped down. Flash grew 34.0% with ASP up "low-thirties%" and bits flat. In August we read the second quarter as a supplier reserving capacity rather than selling into the shortage; the third quarter is the same decision, made again at a higher price, and this time the bits it held back show up on the balance sheet.

Of NT$82.33B of third-quarter revenue, NT$24.23B is cost of sales, leaving a 70.6% gross margin against 66.2% in the second quarter. Operating expenses take NT$14.32B and income tax NT$8.72B; net income is NT$35.14B, and NT$35.42B is attributable to the parent because the minority's share of Nuvoton's loss is added back. Memory, Logic IC and Other revenue are the deck's product split; Other = consolidated revenue less memory and Logic IC. Operating expenses by business are from the deck's operating-expense slide.

The numbers

Revenue

NT$82.33B

+278.2% Y/Y · +37.6% Q/Q

CMS blended ASP

+60s% Q/Q

bits down high-single digits

Gross margin

70.6%

from 66.2% in Q2

EPS

NT$7.58

2.22x FY2021's NT$3.41

Inventory

NT$29.38B

+NT$3.60B at ~100% utilization

D&A

NT$7.60B

2.37x the second quarter

Winbond Electronics Q3 2026 · consolidated · NT$ billions unless stated

Line	Q3 26	Q2 26	Q3 25	Y/Y
Sales
Revenue	82.33	59.84	21.77	+278.2%
Memory revenue	74.28	51.70	14.13	+425.6%
Logic IC revenue	7.59	7.74	7.22
Gross margin	70.6%	66.2%	46.7%
Memory gross margin	73.9%	70.3%	50.8%
Profit
Operating profit	43.78	28.98	3.70	+1082.4%
Operating margin	53.2%	48.4%	17.0%
Net income to parent	35.42	24.32	2.94	+1103.5%
EPS (NT$)	7.58	5.40	0.65
Cash and balance sheet
Operating cash flow	45.87	23.31	2.84
Capex	15.95	5.17	1.37
Depreciation & amortization	7.60	3.21	3.13
Inventory	29.38	25.79	25.25
Cash & hedging assets	84.86	61.83	17.20
Equity	225.54	173.54	101.39

Source: Winbond 3Q26 and 2Q26 investor conference decks (consolidated, unaudited); monthly revenue from TWSE MOPS. Notes ↓

One piece of context before the argument. The deck reports in New Taiwan dollars and the ASP changes in US dollars; the exchange rate moved 1.3% on the quarter (31.58 to 31.99 NT$/US$), so about a point of the revenue growth is currency and the rest is the contract price.

The deck's own description of the quarter is two lines on the memory-results slide. For CMS: revenue "+50%", bit shipment "Decreased high-single digit%", blended ASP (US$) "Increased approx. sixties%". For Flash: revenue "+34.0%", bit shipment "Flat", blended ASP "Increased low-thirties%". Decode: none of the quarter's growth came from selling more memory. Price carried all of it, and in the larger line price had to make up for fewer bits as well. A supplier at about 100% utilization that ships fewer bits is not short of demand. It is choosing where the bits go, and when.

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The headline numbers are above. The 12 sections below carry the mechanism, the peer read, the valuation work, and the dated tests that decide it.

Nine quarters: the level before the delta
All price, fewer bits
The bits it made and did not ship
The depreciation bill
The bond, the buy-in and the cash
Connecting the dots
The December bar
Valuation
The strongest case against this read
What we'd watch
Grading the August calls
Bottom line

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Sources

Winbond Electronics (華邦電, 2344) — 3Q26 Investor Conference presentation, November 3, 2026 (consolidated, unaudited; NT$ millions). Income statement 3Q26 / 2Q26 / 3Q25: net sales 82,331 / 59,843 / 21,771; gross profit 58,101 / 39,645 / 10,166 (70.6% / 66.2% / 46.7%); operating expenses 14,317 / 10,666 / 6,463; operating profit 43,784 / 28,979 / 3,703 (53.2% / 48.4% / 17.0%); non-operating items 77 / 1,039 / (145); income tax 8,723 / 5,820 / 857; net income 35,138 / 24,199 / 2,701; net income to parent 35,422 / 24,317 / 2,943; EPS NT$7.58 / NT$5.40 / NT$0.65; 3Q26 YTD EPS NT$15.32; EBITDA 51,781 / 33,643 / 7,048; average NT$/US$ 31.99 / 31.58 / 29.78. Memory business: net sales 74,284 / 51,700 / 14,132; gross profit 54,872 / 36,337 / 7,183 (73.9% / 70.3% / 50.8%); operating expenses 10,418 / 6,938 / 2,988; operating income 44,454 / 29,400 / 4,195 (59.8% / 56.9% / 29.7%); utilization ~100%. Revenue by product 3Q24–3Q26: consolidated 21,312; 18,692; 19,993; 21,018; 21,771; 26,625; 38,253; 59,843; 82,331; memory 12,941; 11,018; 11,190; 12,824; 14,132; 19,172; 29,923; 51,700; 74,284; Logic IC 7,905; 7,193; 8,305; 7,747; 7,217; 6,981; 7,884; 7,735; 7,593; 3Q26 mix CMS 58%, Flash 32%, Logic IC 9%, other 1%; CMS +15,841 and Flash +6,743 Q/Q. Operating expenses 3Q26: R&D memory 5,914, SG&A memory 4,954 (2Q26 3,312; 3Q25 998), R&D logic 2,531, SG&A logic 918; opex/revenue 1Q25–3Q26 30%, 30%, 30%, 26%, 21%, 18%, 18%. Balance sheet 09.30.2026 / 06.30.2026 / 09.30.2025: cash & hedging assets 84,856 / 61,826 / 17,203; receivables 49,307 / 37,439 / 13,302; inventories 29,384 / 25,787 / 25,251; investments 49,839 / 55,664 / 22,853; PP&E and ROU 116,431 / 106,519 / 97,815; total assets 336,301 / 293,034 / 182,603; current liabilities 73,617 / 92,104 / 51,034; long-term borrowings 31,096 / 21,449 / 20,246; total liabilities 110,763 / 119,492 / 81,215; equity 225,538 / 173,542 / 101,388; BVPS NT$46.04 / NT$36.67 / NT$21.08; debt/equity 0.49 / 0.69 / 0.80; current ratio 2.50 / 1.60 / 1.33; 4,720 million shares outstanding at 09.30.2026. Cash flow 3Q26 / 2Q26 / 3Q25: operating 45,868 / 23,306 / 2,836; D&A 7,596 / 3,206 / 3,126; investing (16,518) / (5,631) / (1,621); capex (15,948) / (5,172) / (1,368); financing (6,483) / (4,315) / (4,596); bank loans (6,063) / (1,985) / 5,559; cash dividends — / (2,250) / —; free cash flow 29,920 / 18,134 / 1,468. Memory capex 3Q26 YTD NT$23.4B; 2026 estimate approx. NT$39.5B (WFE ~95%). Memory revenue results 3Q26 vs 2Q26: CMS revenue +50%, bits decreased high-single digit%, blended ASP (US$) increased approx. sixties%; Flash revenue +34.0%, bits flat, ASP increased low-thirties%; exchange rate +1.3%. Memory revenue by application 3Q26 (2Q26): communication 31% (29%), computer 17% (15%), consumer 26% (28%), car & industrial 26% (28%); Q/Q communication +55%, computer +66%, consumer +35%, car & industrial +36%. Nuvoton 3Q26: net sales 7,856, gross margin 37.4%, operating margin −6.5%, net loss (559). Corporate value: EPS 2021 NT$3.41, 2022 NT$3.23, 2023 (NT$0.29), 2024 NT$0.14, 2025 NT$0.88; EBITDA 2021 30,085, 3Q26 YTD 101,552. Outlook slides quoted as written.
Winbond — 2Q26 (August 6, 2026) and 1Q26 (May 5, 2026) investor conference presentations (NT$ millions): gross profit 1Q25 5,122, 2Q25 4,763, 4Q25 11,146, 1Q26 20,415; operating profit 1Q25 (965), 2Q25 (1,295), 4Q25 4,092, 1Q26 12,550; memory gross margin 1Q25 10.5%, 2Q25 12.1%, 4Q25 43.3%, 1Q26 56.6%; memory operating income 1Q25 (1,336), 2Q25 (1,097), 4Q25 4,744, 1Q26 12,707; 4Q25 EPS NT$0.76; operating cash flow 1Q25 393, 2Q25 2,437, 4Q25 5,516, 1Q26 12,366; capex 1,582, 1,412, 2,135, 2,916; D&A 3,255, 3,211, 3,092, 3,089; convertible bonds 1Q26 23,932; inventories 03.31.2025 23,540, 06.30.2025 21,629, 12.31.2025 25,758, 03.31.2026 25,232; receivables 03.31.2025 11,855, 06.30.2025 11,855, 12.31.2025 16,071, 03.31.2026 22,015; investments 03.31.2026 31,157 (1Q26 deck 31,156), 12.31.2025 32,416; equity 12.31.2025 114,130, 03.31.2026 122,894; current liabilities 46,615, 75,046; long-term borrowings 21,534, 22,149; total liabilities 78,062, 106,920; total assets 12.31.2025 192,192, 03.31.2026 229,814; 4,500 million shares at 03.31 and 06.30.2026, "expected to reach 4,720 million units upon full ECB conversion announced on 08.03.2026"; 2026 capex estimate NT$40.5B (May 5) and NT$39.5B (August 6); 1H26 capex NT$7.5B; CMS 2Q26 bits decreased low-teens%, ASP increased by ~100%; 1Q26 bits increased mid-twenties%, ASP increased low-fifties%; 2Q26 outlook "Further upside potential in 3Q contract pricing".
Winbond — "Winbond Announces Q3 2026 Business Results", November 3, 2026 (high-density NOR Flash revenue and shipments at record highs; product and application mix); "Winbond to Acquire 100% Equity Interest in Infineon's NOR Flash and F-RAM Business", September 16, 2026 (all-cash; base purchase price US$1.12 billion; closing expected in the second half of calendar 2027 subject to regulatory approvals; to be named Spansion; standalone, US headquarters).
Winbond (2344) — monthly revenue filings, TWSE MOPS (t05st10); NT$ thousands: March 2026 14,500,000 and April 2026 19,245,000 (as reported on the Q2 page); May 20,001,000; June 20,597,000; July 26,773,179; August 27,308,717 (+2.0% M/M, +289.4% Y/Y); September 28,248,909 (+3.4% M/M, +256.7% Y/Y); 2026 cumulative through September 180,427,134.
Market data — Taiwan Stock Exchange daily trading (STOCK_DAY), November 3, 2026: Winbond (2344) close NT$146.00, −16.00 (prior NT$162.00); Nanya (2408) NT$411.00, −45.50 (prior NT$456.50); Macronix (2337) NT$88.30, −7.90 (prior NT$96.20); TAIEX 43,307.54, −1,612.60 (prior 44,920.14); Winbond intraday high NT$233.50 on June 22, 2026.
Second-quarter call figures, as cited on tkal's Winbond Q2 2026 page from the August 6, 2026 conference coverage: Chen Pei-ming on pricing ("I'll be more conservative and won't lead the price hikes"); Kaohsiung 15K to 24K and Taichung DRAM 12K to 7K wafers a month; Module B construction from January 2027, mass production end of 2029, 50,000–60,000 wafers a month; a peer's roughly NT$350B for 45,000 wafers, implying NT$390B–470B; LTAs required for Module B capacity; 88.9 cents incremental gross profit in Q2; market value about NT$797B at NT$177.00; FY2026 EPS of NT$23.42 (a domestic house) and NT$22.6 (tkal triangulation); Q3 EPS triangulated at about NT$7.5.
Notes. Other revenue = consolidated revenue less memory and Logic IC. Non-memory operating result = consolidated operating profit less memory operating income (3Q26 43,784 − 44,454 = −670 on 82,331 − 74,284 = 8,047 of revenue). Incremental margins = change in gross (operating) profit ÷ change in revenue, 2Q26 to 3Q26. Inventory and receivables ratios use each quarter's revenue; inventory ÷ cost of sales uses revenue less gross profit (3Q26 24,230; 2Q26 20,198; 3Q25 11,605). Equity bridge: 225,538 − 173,542 = 51,996; less net income 35,138 = 16,858. Parent equity check: BVPS × shares (46.04 × 4,720 = 217,309; 36.67 × 4,500 = 165,015). Weighted shares = net income to parent ÷ EPS. Implied conversion price = 23,932 ÷ 220 million new shares. Q4 implied capex = 39.5 − 23.4. December bar: September × 1.10 = 31.07B for October, held flat for November and December = 93.22B; parent net margin 35,422 ÷ 82,331 = 43.02%; EPS on 4,720 million shares. Trailing EPS = 4Q25 NT$0.76 + 3Q26 YTD NT$15.32. Annualized = 3Q26 × 4. USD at ~31.99 NT$/US$ (the deck's 3Q26 average), approximate.
tkal pages in the rope: Winbond Q2 2026 (three Wrong ifs graded here); Nanya Q3 2026 (ASP up more than 60% on bit shipments down mid-single digits, renewed long-term agreements; October–December average above NT$44.55B); Macronix Q3 2026 (NOR revenue +21% on a 12.0% fall in NOR density shipments); Puya Q3 2026 (gross margin 54.87% to 55.15%); Longsys Q3 2026 (gross margin 44.74% from 61.26%); Biwin Q3 2026 (42.8% from 56.0%); Team Group Q3 2026 (49.27% from 42.77%).

Winbond Q3 2026: One Quarter Earned 2.22x Its Best Year. All of It Was Price, on Fewer Bits.

The setup

The numbers

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