AI Capital Flows

Server OEMs

• Lenovo Q1 FY26/27 — The Best Quarter It Has Ever Had, Bought in Advance

  Lenovo Q1 FY2026/27 earnings deep dive: record $26.9B revenue (+43%), adjusted profit attributable $1,075M (+176%) against a reported $609M loss, and ISG operating profit of $776.9M versus an $85.5M loss a year earlier. The inventory series, the cash-flow gap, the 29.6% dilution stack, and the dated Q3 test

  Earnings · September 6, 2026

• HPE Q3 FY26 — The Warehouse Did the Quarter, and the Suppliers Financed It.

  HPE Q3 FY26 earnings deep dive: record revenue $12.21B (+33.7%), GAAP gross margin 40.1% (+1,090bps), non-GAAP EPS $1.11 — and inventory of $11.82B, up 65.06%, with 79.83% of the quarter's build funded by stretching suppliers. Not investment advice

  Earnings · September 3, 2026

• Dell Q2 FY27 — The Margin Argument Is Over. The Vendor Became the Credit.

  Dell Q2 FY27 earnings deep dive: record $46.97B revenue (+58%), non-GAAP EPS $7.04, a $95B AI backlog — and free cash flow down 47% to $986M on a $6.67B financing-receivables add-back. The margin question from June resolved; the constraint moved to cash

  Earnings · September 2, 2026

• SMCI Q4 FY26 — They Doubled the Margin and Called It "Mix"

  Super Micro Q4 FY26, read forensically: revenue nearly doubled to $11.1B and that was never the argument. The whole equity now hangs on one number — a GAAP gross margin that jumped to 17.5% from 9.5% — and management's one-word explanation for it: mix

  Earnings · August 12, 2026

• Dell Q1 FY27 — Revenue Doubled; the Argument Is the Margin

  Dell Q1 FY27 earnings deep dive: record $43.8B revenue (+88%), AI servers +757%, a ~$51B AI backlog — set against 330bps of gross-margin compression. The quality-of-revenue debate, the peer read-through, and the listed-market read-through

  Earnings · June 26, 2026

• Lenovo Q4 FY25/26 — The Server Business Finally Pays; the Multiple Still Doesn't Believe It

  Lenovo Q4/FY25-26 earnings deep dive: record $83.1B year (+20%), Q4 revenue $21.6B (+27%), ISG's first full-year profit and a record $202M server operating profit, AI revenue 38% of Q4 — yet the stock holds ~12x forward. The margin-turn debate, the Dell/HPQ/SMCI/NVDA read-through, and the listed-market read-through

  Earnings · June 26, 2026

• HPE FY26 Q2 — The Cheapest 40%-Growth Print on the Board

  HPE fiscal Q2 FY26 earnings deep dive: record $10.7B revenue (+40% YoY), non-GAAP EPS of $0.79 against a $0.51–0.55 guide, Cloud & AI margin doubling to 12.4%, a Juniper-charged networking line up 148%, and a full-year guide raised by roughly a dollar of EPS — to a level above what management had promised for FY28

  Earnings · June 25, 2026