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Earnings deep dive · Synthesis edition · Software · AI applications

PLTR Q3 2026: Revenue Outran the Book — U.S. Commercial Grew 29% in the Quarter, Its Remaining Deal Value 4%

Revenue rose 96% to $2.313B and U.S. commercial 148% to $984M, but U.S. commercial remaining deal value rose 4% to $6.517B, covering 1.66 years of run-rate revenue against 2.04 to 2.29 before, RPO held at $4.9B and about $200M of deal value left the book unbilled. Our call: December-quarter U.S. commercial remaining deal value below $8.05B; at or above $8.05B refutes it.
Published · Post-print analysis · Palantir Technologies Inc. · PLTR · NASDAQ · Q3 2026, three months ended , reported after the close; Form 10-Q filed · Committed analyst read — not advice

The setup

Palantir's revenue is now running ahead of the book that feeds it, and our call is that December shows it again: U.S. commercial remaining deal value below $8.05B, slower than the 23.58% sequential U.S. commercial growth the full-year guide implies, with $8.05B or more refuting it. In the September quarter U.S. commercial revenue grew 29% sequentially to $984M, while U.S. commercial remaining deal value, the company's own measure of what is left on signed contracts, grew 4% to $6.517B. The best quarter Palantir has ever printed came with the thinnest order book behind it, and the order book is what the stock is priced on.

Palantir reported its third quarter on , after the close, and filed the 10-Q the next morning. Revenue was $2.313B, up 96% on the year and 20% on the quarter, the first quarter above $2 billion. U.S. revenue was $1.937B, up 119%. U.S. commercial grew 148% to $984M and U.S. government 96% to $953M, so commercial passed government in the United States for the first time. GAAP operating income was $1.085B, a 47% margin; adjusted operating income $1.427B, a 62% margin; GAAP net income $1.128B; diluted EPS $0.44 on both a GAAP and an adjusted basis. The Rule of 40 score was 158%. The company raised full-year revenue guidance to $8.530B to $8.534B and guided December revenue to $2.649B to $2.653B.

Every one of those lines is a record. The lines that tell you what next year looks like are not, and Palantir's own highlights show it. Total contract value closed in the quarter was $2.918B, up 6% on the year, after +49% in June and +138% in . U.S. commercial TCV was $1.463B, up 11%, down from the $2.132B record in June. Remaining performance obligations, the non-cancelable part of the book the 10-Q has to disclose under accounting rules, were $4.9B, exactly where they were at . The income statement accelerated. The order book did not.

That matters more for Palantir than for most software companies, because the stock is priced on the second derivative. At $175.26 the equity is worth about $422.28B, 56.5 times trailing revenue and 99.6 times annualized adjusted EPS. A business priced like that does not need revenue to fall to disappoint. It needs the book to stop growing faster than the revenue it releases. That has been drifting for a year, and this quarter the gap was the widest in the series: U.S. commercial deal value covered 1.66 years of run-rate revenue, against a band of 2.04 to 2.29 years in the seven quarters before.

Palantir Q3 2026 Income Statement Quarter ended · GAAP · $ in millions Revenue $2,313.4M +95.9% Y/Y $1,167.9M +113.0% Y/Y Commercial U.S. $984M $1,145.5M +81.1% Y/Y Government U.S. $953M Gross profit $1,930.1M 83.4% margin from 84.7% in Q2 Cost of revenue ($383.3M) +29.1% Q/Q Operating profit $1,084.8M 46.9% margin +175.9% Y/Y Operating expenses ($845.3M) Net profit $1,128.0M 48.8% margin +137.2% Y/Y Other expense, net ($25.8M) Tax ($13.6M) Minority interest ($6.4M) Interest income $88.9M Sales & marketing ($396.7M) 17.1% of revenue G&A ($228.8M) R&D ($219.7M) Source: Palantir Form 8-K Ex. 99.1 (2026-11-02), Form 10-Q (2026-11-03) and prior 8-Ks / 10-Qs · chart: tkal.news
Where Palantir's September-quarter revenue went: 83.4% survived cost of revenue, 46.9% survived operating expense, and interest on $10.56B of cash and Treasuries lifted net income above operating income. Net income attributable to common stockholders 1,128.0 = operating income 1,084.8 + interest income 88.9 − other expense, net 25.8 − tax 13.6 − noncontrolling interests 6.4. Segment revenue from the 10-Q segment note.

The numbers

Revenue
$2.31B
+95.9% Y/Y · +19.5% Q/Q
U.S. commercial revenue
$984M
+148% Y/Y · +29% Q/Q
U.S. commercial RDV
$6.52B
+79% Y/Y · +4% Q/Q
TCV closed
$2.92B
+6% Y/Y · from $3.37B
Adj. op margin
62%
from 51%
Op cash flow
$1.20B
from $507.7M · flat Q/Q

Palantir Q3 2026 · $ millions unless stated

LineQ3 26Q2 26Q3 25Y/Y
Sales
Revenue2,313.41,935.51,181.1+95.9%
Commercial1,167.9945.4548.4+113.0%
Government1,145.5990.0632.7+81.1%
U.S. commercial984764397+148%
U.S. government953809486+96%
Profit
Gross profit1,930.11,638.6973.8+98.2%
Operating income1,084.8912.0393.3+175.9%
Adj. operating income1,426.81,194600.5+137.6%
Net income1,128.01,061.9475.6+137.2%
Book
TCV closed2,9183,3732,760+5.7%
U.S. commercial TCV1,4632,1321,310+11.7%
U.S. commercial RDV6,5176,2383,630+79.5%
RPO ($B)4.94.92.6+88.5%
Cash
Operating cash flow1,204.61,216.2507.7+137.3%
Adj. free cash flow1,216.11,220539.9+125.3%

Source: Palantir Form 8-K Ex. 99.1 () and Form 10-Q (); prior quarters from the Q2 2026 and Q3 2025 releases and 10-Qs. Q2 2026 operating cash flow derived from year-to-date. Notes ↓

One piece of context before the argument. Remaining deal value (RDV) and total contract value (TCV) are Palantir's own measures. Both assume every contract option is exercised and no contract is terminated, and the 10-Q says most contracts can be terminated for convenience. Remaining performance obligations (RPO) are the audited, non-cancelable subset.

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The rest of this dive is for paid subscribers.

The headline numbers are above. The 11 sections below carry the order-book arithmetic, the cloud contract, the valuation work, and the dated tests that decide it.

  • Nine quarters: the level before the delta
  • The book that stopped refilling
  • Where $200M of deal value went
  • The margin and the $5.6B cloud bill
  • The cash, the stock comp and the Treasury pile
  • Connecting the dots
  • The December bar
  • Valuation
  • The strongest case against this read
  • What we'd watch
  • Bottom line
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Sources