The setup
Palantir's revenue is now running ahead of the book that feeds it, and our call is that December shows it again: U.S. commercial remaining deal value below $8.05B, slower than the 23.58% sequential U.S. commercial growth the full-year guide implies, with $8.05B or more refuting it. In the September quarter U.S. commercial revenue grew 29% sequentially to $984M, while U.S. commercial remaining deal value, the company's own measure of what is left on signed contracts, grew 4% to $6.517B. The best quarter Palantir has ever printed came with the thinnest order book behind it, and the order book is what the stock is priced on.
Palantir reported its third quarter on , after the close, and filed the 10-Q the next morning. Revenue was $2.313B, up 96% on the year and 20% on the quarter, the first quarter above $2 billion. U.S. revenue was $1.937B, up 119%. U.S. commercial grew 148% to $984M and U.S. government 96% to $953M, so commercial passed government in the United States for the first time. GAAP operating income was $1.085B, a 47% margin; adjusted operating income $1.427B, a 62% margin; GAAP net income $1.128B; diluted EPS $0.44 on both a GAAP and an adjusted basis. The Rule of 40 score was 158%. The company raised full-year revenue guidance to $8.530B to $8.534B and guided December revenue to $2.649B to $2.653B.
Every one of those lines is a record. The lines that tell you what next year looks like are not, and Palantir's own highlights show it. Total contract value closed in the quarter was $2.918B, up 6% on the year, after +49% in June and +138% in . U.S. commercial TCV was $1.463B, up 11%, down from the $2.132B record in June. Remaining performance obligations, the non-cancelable part of the book the 10-Q has to disclose under accounting rules, were $4.9B, exactly where they were at . The income statement accelerated. The order book did not.
That matters more for Palantir than for most software companies, because the stock is priced on the second derivative. At $175.26 the equity is worth about $422.28B, 56.5 times trailing revenue and 99.6 times annualized adjusted EPS. A business priced like that does not need revenue to fall to disappoint. It needs the book to stop growing faster than the revenue it releases. That has been drifting for a year, and this quarter the gap was the widest in the series: U.S. commercial deal value covered 1.66 years of run-rate revenue, against a band of 2.04 to 2.29 years in the seven quarters before.
The numbers
Palantir Q3 2026 · $ millions unless stated
| Line | Q3 26 | Y/Y | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | ||||
| Revenue | 2,313.4 | |||
| Commercial | 1,167.9 | |||
| Government | 1,145.5 | |||
| U.S. commercial | 984 | |||
| U.S. government | 953 | |||
| Profit | ||||
| Gross profit | 1,930.1 | |||
| Operating income | 1,084.8 | |||
| Adj. operating income | 1,426.8 | |||
| Net income | 1,128.0 | |||
| Book | ||||
| TCV closed | 2,918 | |||
| U.S. commercial TCV | 1,463 | |||
| U.S. commercial RDV | 6,517 | |||
| RPO ($B) | 4.9 | |||
| Cash | ||||
| Operating cash flow | 1,204.6 | |||
| Adj. free cash flow | 1,216.1 | |||
Source: Palantir Form 8-K Ex. 99.1 () and Form 10-Q (); prior quarters from the Q2 2026 and Q3 2025 releases and 10-Qs. Q2 2026 operating cash flow derived from year-to-date. Notes ↓
One piece of context before the argument. Remaining deal value (RDV) and total contract value (TCV) are Palantir's own measures. Both assume every contract option is exercised and no contract is terminated, and the 10-Q says most contracts can be terminated for convenience. Remaining performance obligations (RPO) are the audited, non-cancelable subset.
The rest of this dive is for paid subscribers.
The headline numbers are above. The 11 sections below carry the order-book arithmetic, the cloud contract, the valuation work, and the dated tests that decide it.
- Nine quarters: the level before the delta
- The book that stopped refilling
- Where $200M of deal value went
- The margin and the $5.6B cloud bill
- The cash, the stock comp and the Treasury pile
- Connecting the dots
- The December bar
- Valuation
- The strongest case against this read
- What we'd watch
- Bottom line
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