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Earnings deep dive · Synthesis edition · AI Servers & Systems · Contract manufacturing

Jabil Q4 FY26: The AI Build Is Bigger Than the Revenue Line

My read: Jabil's AI build is growing faster on its balance sheet than on its income statement, and the $44.5B fiscal 2027 guide counts only the part that reaches revenue. If prepaid expenses and other current assets, the line where Jabil carries components it buys for customers and books net, are above $4,559M on the balance sheet, the ramp is still being financed there; below May's $3,925M, fiscal 2026's build was a timing lump that shipped, and I'm wrong. The print itself beat: revenue $10,616M, up 29% and $616M above the top of the guide, and core EPS $4.40 against $3.80 to $4.20. AI-related revenue is guided to $22.1B, up 54%. The components Jabil books net were $2.8B by May. They are in none of those numbers.
Published · Post-print synthesis (quarter ended , reported before the open ) · JBL · NYSE · Committed analyst read, not advice · For analysts covering AI servers, EMS and data center infrastructure
Revenue
$10.62B
+29% YoY · $616M above guide top
Core diluted EPS
$4.40
vs $3.80–$4.20 guide · +34% YoY
Core operating margin
6.4%
vs 6.3% a year ago
FY27 revenue guide
$44.5B
+24% · AI-related $22.1B, +54%
Quarter ended · reported before the open · figures from the Q4 FY26 8-K Exhibit 99.1, the fiscal 2026 Forms 10-Q, the FY25 Form 10-K and the call transcript unless marked

A beat, and a guide that is half AI

Start with what is not in dispute. Revenue for the quarter ended was $10,616M, up 29%, and $616M above the top of Jabil's own $9.2B to $10.0B range. Core EPS of $4.40 cleared the top of $3.80 to $4.20 by $0.20; GAAP diluted EPS was $3.76. Core operating income rose 30.1% to $675M, and core operating margin was 6.4% against 6.3% a year earlier. For the year, revenue of $35,954M grew 20.6%, core EPS reached $13.09, and adjusted free cash flow was $1,532M.

The guide is the news. Fiscal 2027 revenue of $44.5B, up 24%, at a 6.1% core operating margin and $17.55 of core EPS. Mike Dastoor, the chief executive, put AI-related revenue at "approximately $22.1 billion, up 54%," from $14.4B. That is 49.7% of next year's revenue and 90.1% of the $8,546M it adds. As a read on AI data center builds it is unambiguous: Jabil's customers add more AI hardware in fiscal 2027 than in fiscal 2026, $7.7B against $5.4B, on a larger base. Cloud and data center infrastructure alone is guided to $17.5B, up 52%, and Dastoor said: "I expect the second hyperscaler to be a 10%+ customer in FY27."

My argument is that the revenue line undercounts that build. The balance sheet shows by how much.

Jabil Q4 FY26 Income Statement Q4 FY26 · quarter ended · GAAP · $ in millions Revenue $10,616M +29% Y/Y $5,800M +56% Y/Y Intelligent Infrastructure cloud, data center, networking, capital equipment $3,400M +9% Y/Y Regulated Industries $1,400M flat Y/Y Connected Living & Digital Commerce Gross profit $1,001M 9.4% margin from 9.5% a year ago Cost of revenue ($9,615M) 90.6% of revenue Operating profit $602M 5.7% margin Operating expenses ($399M) Net profit $397M 3.7% margin Interest and other, net ($80M) Income tax ($125M) Operating expenses ($399M) 3.8% of revenue Source: Jabil Q4 FY26 results (Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, ) and the Q4 FY26 earnings call · chart: tkal.news
Of $10,616M in revenue, $9,615M is cost of revenue. A 9.4% gross margin leaves $1,001M; operating expenses take $399M, and $397M reaches net income. Intelligent Infrastructure, the AI segment, is the biggest block of revenue. Segment revenue is the call's rounded figures (Regulated Industries ~$3.4B, Intelligent Infrastructure ~$5.8B, Connected Living and Digital Commerce ~$1.4B), which sum to $10,600M against reported revenue of $10,616M; the quarter's segment table arrives with the Form 10-K. Operating expenses are SG&A $324M, stock-based compensation $25M, amortization $24M, acquisition charges $10M, restructuring $9M and R&D $7M. Below the line: interest and other, net $80M and income tax $125M. Net income includes a $1M loss attributable to noncontrolling interests ($398M attributable to Jabil).

The guide is a run rate the factory already holds

Intelligent Infrastructure, the segment that holds the racks, liquid cooling, power and networking, was about $5.8B in the quarter, up 56%, against $4,169M in the May quarter. The first-quarter guide puts it at about $6.3B, up 63%, and the year at $25.6B. Do the subtraction. That leaves $19.3B for the last three quarters, about $6.43B each. Goldman's Mark Delaney made the same point about the whole company: take the first-quarter revenue, annualize it, and "you're already at about $44 billion."

So the fiscal 2027 AI guide is a level that arrives in the first quarter and then holds. That reads as a capacity statement, not a demand ceiling. Dastoor, on the same call: "Demand is way outweighing supply right now." Jabil is adding "4 million square feet," and a contract manufacturer reads its customers' build plans through the floor space it has booked. This one says the floor is full from November.

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The headline numbers are above. The 7 sections below carry the mechanism, the peer read, the valuation work, and the dated tests that decide it.

  • The components that never reach revenue
  • Asset-light in capex, heavy everywhere else
  • The margin, and the part Hanley bought
  • The strongest case against me
  • What decides it
  • The trade (analysis, not advice)
  • Bottom line
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The components that never reach revenue

The third-quarter 10-Q carries one sentence the rest of this piece depends on: "the Company had $2.8 billion and $1.1 billion, respectively, of components included in prepaid expenses and other current assets ... related to purchases made to procure components for customers whereby the associated revenue is expected to be accounted for on a net basis once transferred to the customer." Decode it. Jabil buys certain parts on a customer's instruction, pays for them and holds them, and when they go into the product it books the service, not the part. The part never touches revenue or cost of revenue. It sits in prepaid, a line that none of the working-capital days Jabil reports include.

That balance was $734M at , $1.1B a year later, $1.6B in November, $1.5B in February and $2.8B in May, 71.3% of the prepaid line. In the fourth quarter prepaid rose another $634M to $4,559M; the August split arrives with the 10-K. Frank Mckay, the chief supply chain officer, described who drives it: "In cloud and data center infrastructure, for example, large customers play a key role in securing supply." Which parts these are, the filings do not say. The call did not either, and nobody asked.

The same purchases explain the payables. Three of the last four filings attribute the climb in days payable to "higher purchases of customer-controlled consignment components and the timing of cash payments." On Jabil's formula, payables over cost of revenue, days payable went from 96 a year ago to 135 in May. The numerator carries the supplier bill for those parts. The denominator excludes their cost. The house has called this the payable is the loan you don't see; Jabil's version is stranger, because the loan finances inventory that is not Jabil's revenue. A payables figure of 135 days is not generous supplier terms. It is an invoice for parts booked somewhere else.

Asset-light in capex, heavy everywhere else

The release says Jabil is "moving up the value chain, taking on more of our customers' engineering and manufacturing complexity while maintaining an asset-light model." On capital spending that holds: net capex of $470M, 1.3% of revenue. On the balance sheet it does not. Total assets rose 48.0% to $27,435M on revenue up 20.6%: receivables up 61.3%, inventories up 58.4%, prepaid up 126.8%. Receivables, contract assets, inventories and prepaid went from $11,787M to $19,781M, up 67.8%, or $7,994M.

The balance sheet the AI build sits on receivables, contract assets, inventories and prepaid · quarter-end · $ in millions Receivables Contract assets Inventories Prepaid and other $0M $5,000M $10,000M $15,000M $20,000M $11,787M Aug 2025 $12,812M Nov 2025 $13,179M Feb 2026 $16,798M $19,781M Aug 2026 Receivables $6,513M Contract assets $1,296M Inventories $7,413M Prepaid and other $4,559M Source: Jabil condensed consolidated balance sheets, Forms 8-K Ex. 99.1 (Q4 FY25 to Q4 FY26) · chart: tkal.news
These four lines rose from $11,787M to $19,781M in five quarter-ends, 67.8%, while revenue for the year rose 20.6%. Prepaid, where Jabil carries components it buys for customers and books net, more than doubled. Payables plus accrued expenses rose from $13,122M to $21,063M over the same dates, so the net of the two sides moved only between $(1,033)M and $(1,335)M. Per the Forms 10-Q, components bought for customers and to be booked on a net basis were $1.1B of prepaid at , $1.6B at , $1.5B at and $2.8B at ; the figure arrives with the Form 10-K.

Almost none of it cost Jabil cash. Payables and accrued expenses rose $7,941M over the same year; payables alone rose 82.0% to $14,444M. The net of the two sides sat between $(1,033)M and $(1,335)M at every quarter-end. Call it the composite hides the component, in its cleanest form: the net that management manages is steady, the gross underneath grew by two-thirds, and Jabil's own cash cycle went from 18 days last August to 5 in May. At , on the same formulas, it is about 1.5 days: receivables 55.2, inventory 81.5, payables 135.2.

Where fiscal 2026's operating cash came from FY26 · net income to operating cash flow · $ in millions −$5,000M $0M $5,000M $10,000M $1,040M Net income +$824M Non-cash items +$7,984M Payables, accruals, other liabilities −$2,615M Receivables and contract assets −$2,681M Inventories −$2,550M Prepaid and other assets $2,002M Operating cash flow axis starts at −$5,000M — bars show the bridge, not absolute magnitude Source: Jabil Q4 FY26 results (Form 8-K Ex. 99.1, ), condensed consolidated statements of cash flows · chart: tkal.news
Receivables, contract assets, inventories and prepaid assets absorbed $7,834M in fiscal 2026. Payables, accruals and other liabilities returned $7,984M. The $2,002M of operating cash is earnings plus a working-capital wash, and the wash is two very large numbers. From the fiscal 2026 cash flow statement. Non-cash items are depreciation and amortization $681M, stock-based compensation $140M, restructuring $47M, divestiture loss $1M, deferred taxes $(21)M and other $(24)M, together $824M. Receivables $(2,394)M, contract assets $(221)M, inventories $(2,681)M, prepaid expenses and other current assets $(2,538)M; other assets $(12)M is included in the prepaid bar ($(2,550)M).

Greg Hebert, the chief financial officer, gave the forward version: "We do see a dollar increase in just managing net working capital for the year, but we still feel really good about generating free cash flow of 1.6 billion." Decoded, that is a promise that supplier float keeps pace with an $8,546M revenue step. Jabil also fits the house model the ODM pays three ways: in working capital held for the program, in debt, which rose $494M to $3,379M, and in equity, through the warrant Amazon holds on up to 1,158,539 shares at $137.7671. None of the three shows in core EPS. At TD SYNNEX's Hyve the same model came with billings up 117% at a 3.61% margin.

The margin, and the part Hanley bought

AI is lifting Jabil's segment margin. Intelligent Infrastructure earned 5.2% in the November quarter, 5.7% in February, 6.1% in May and 6.5% in August, "up 60 basis points year over year, reflecting an improvement including the contribution of our margin accretive Hanley Energy acquisition." Two cautions before banking it. The first is the house rule, find the segment whose margin actually moved before crediting the acquisition, and here the acquisition sits inside the segment: Hanley, bought for $752M on , whose services the segment head called "the highest margin business in the segment." The call gave no split. At the company level, gross margin was 9.43% against 9.49% a year earlier, so the segment's gain did not reach the gross line. The second is the netting. When a part is booked net, its revenue and its cost both leave the income statement, so the same dollar of service income becomes a larger percentage of a smaller revenue line. A rising share of net-booked parts would lift the reported margin without Jabil earning a cent more per rack.

The AI segment's margin, eight quarters Intelligent Infrastructure segment income margin · % 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% Q1 FY25 Q2 FY25 Q3 FY25 Q4 FY25 Q1 FY26 Q2 FY26 Q3 FY26 Q4 FY26 Intelligent Infrastructure 6.5% Source: Jabil Forms 10-Q (FY25, FY26), FY25 Form 10-K, Q4 FY26 earnings call · chart: tkal.news
The AI segment's margin climbed from 5.2% to 6.5% across fiscal 2026, with Hanley Energy inside it from . The first quarter has stepped down from the fourth before: 5.9% to 5.2% a year ago. Segment income over segment net revenue, from the Forms 10-Q. Q4 FY25 is derived: fiscal-2025 Form 10-K segment totals less the nine-month 10-Q figures ($222M on $3,741M, 5.9%). Q4 FY26 is the 6.5% segment core operating margin stated on the call; the 10-K has not been filed. Hanley Energy was acquired .

The first quarter is where both show. Core operating income is guided to $592M to $652M on revenue of $10.6B to $11.4B, a 5.65% margin at the midpoints, against 6.4% in August and 5.47% a year earlier. Dastoor put the step-down on ramps: "Initially the first one or two quarters in any ramp, the costs are going to be much higher, as a result of which margins can be a little bit lower in the first half." Mix is the softest margin to capitalize, and an AI margin that climbs as capacity fills and steps down when the next tranche opens is a utilization margin until it holds through a ramp.

The strongest case against me

Here is the other side at full strength, and it is not weak. The float is the design, not an accident. Dastoor: "We structure programs with customers so the investment matches the commitment." The net-booked parts are bought at a customer's direction for that customer's product, and customer inventory deposits were $1,385M in May against $1,205M; Hebert credited "an incremental increase in our inventory deposits" as gross inventory rose. The net of operating assets and liabilities has not moved in five quarters. Free cash flow was $1,532M, about 110% of core earnings by the company's count, and the year ended with $1,739M of cash and about $4.4B of unused borrowing capacity. On this reading the gross balance sheet is a pass-through with no risk Jabil keeps, netting is the conservative accounting choice, and I am reading leverage into a clearing house.

I take it seriously and still land the other way. Pass-through works while the parts move. The prepaid balance is Jabil's asset, paid for on Jabil's payables, and the net-booked part of it went from $1.5B to $2.8B in a single quarter. If a program slips, the supplier still wants paying on the same terms and the part still sits in prepaid. That asymmetry is what the net figures hide, and it is why the test sits on the gross line.

What decides it

One line, on one date: prepaid expenses and other current assets on the balance sheet for the quarter ending , in the first-quarter release. Above $4,559M, the AI ramp is still being financed through net-booked components, the revenue guide undercounts the hardware Jabil carries, and payables have to keep climbing with it. Below May's $3,925M, the fiscal 2026 build was a timing lump that shipped, and I'm wrong. Between the two is a partial result, and I'd call it that. The secondary checks are Intelligent Infrastructure against the $6.3B guide and its margin against 6.5%; the 10-Q that follows should restate the net-booked balance against $2.8B. Jabil has not set the date. It reported the same quarter last year on .

The trade (analysis, not advice)

The stock traded near $296 in the session after the release against a $318.84 close, down about 7.2%, on a quarter that beat a vendor consensus of $4.07 by $0.33 (unverified, market data). At that price it is 16.9x the $17.55 fiscal 2027 core EPS guide (unverified). The market does not pay for Jabil's AI exposure the way it pays for a rack vendor's, and the netting is part of the reason. A 6.1% margin on a revenue line that excludes the parts reads like a contract manufacturer. If the November prepaid line keeps rising, the question for the multiple is not demand, which is contracted, but how much balance sheet each dollar of AI revenue now carries. If it falls back below $3,925M, the fiscal 2026 build was timing and the guide deserves its full weight.

Bottom line

Jabil beat, and its fiscal 2027 guide is the clearest factory-floor read yet on AI data center builds: $22.1B of AI-related revenue, up 54%, and a first quarter already running at the full-year pace. The build is larger than that number. Components Jabil buys and books net reached $2.8B by May, the four operating-asset lines grew 67.8% in a year, and suppliers funded it. Wrong if prepaid falls below $3,925M at . Right if it is above $4,559M.

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