tkal · CXMT Q3 2026: Revenue Rose 19%, the Parent's Profit 3%. The Growth Is in Fabs It Mostly Doesn't Own.

CXMT Q3 2026: Revenue Rose 19%, the Parent's Profit 3%. The Growth Is in Fabs It Mostly Doesn't Own.

CXMT's third-quarter revenue rose 19.30% to RMB 118.71B at an 89.53% gross margin, and profit to the listed parent rose 3.01%, because minority holders of the two fastest-growing fabs took 38.8% of group profit. Our call is that the parent's slice keeps shrinking while the cycle lasts; the test is the fourth-quarter minority share in the 2026 annual report, due by April 30, 2027: above 38.8% confirms, below 35.0% refutes.

Published November 2, 2026 · Post-print analysis · ChangXin Memory Technologies, Inc. (长鑫科技) · SSE STAR Market: 688825 · Q3 2026, three months ended September 30, 2026, reported October 30, 2026 · Figures from the third-quarter report, the 2026 half-year report, the IPO prospectus and the October 30 results-call record · Committed analyst read — not advice

The setup

CXMT's third-quarter revenue rose 19.30% to RMB 118.71B at an 89.53% gross margin, and profit to the listed parent rose only 3.01%, because the two subsidiaries that carried the growth are less than a third owned by the company you can buy. Our call is that the parent's slice of the cycle keeps shrinking while the cycle lasts: the minority holders' share of fourth-quarter net profit, in the 2026 annual report due by April 30, 2027, stays above 38.8%; below 35.0% refutes it.

ChangXin Memory Technologies (长鑫科技, 688825.SS) filed its third-quarter report on October 30, 2026 and held its results call the same day. Revenue was RMB 118.71B (~US$17.82B at ~6.66 CNY/USD, approximate), up 613.18% on the year and 19.30% on the quarter. Group net profit was RMB 88.98B (~US$13.36B), up 19.38% on the quarter. Net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 54.43B (~US$8.17B), up 3.01%. Operating cash flow was RMB 123.60B (~US$18.56B). For the nine months, revenue was RMB 269.02B (~US$40.39B) and attributable profit RMB 132.04B (~US$19.83B), inside the company's own October 17 preview of RMB 265.00–270.00B and RMB 131.00–132.50B.

The headline carries the price. It leaves out two numbers. The first is the gap between group profit and the parent's profit. The minority holders of the subsidiaries took RMB 34.55B (~US$5.19B) of the quarter's profit, 38.8% of it, against 29.1% in the second quarter and 25.0% in the first. The second is that customers started paying ahead. Contract liabilities, the cash customers hand over before delivery, rose from RMB 1.26B to RMB 7.04B (~US$1.06B), 5.6 times June's balance. In the same three months another line, other non-current liabilities, rose RMB 30.94B (~US$4.65B) to RMB 39.70B, and the cash-flow statement shows RMB 31.06B (~US$4.66B) of "other" operating receipts in the quarter, against RMB 2.40B in the whole first half. The quarterly report carries no notes and does not say what that money is. We think we know, and Connecting the dots makes the case.

In August we read CXMT's first half as a plant built before the cycle turned, earning a price it had not built for. The thesis library calls it price does the work the capex hasn't done yet, kept in its asset form: the plant that earned the windfall predates it. The third quarter adds two things that model did not have. The new build is visible now, with construction in progress up RMB 7.46B in the quarter. And the business that earns the windfall is no longer the business the listed shares own in full.

Of RMB 118.71B of third-quarter revenue, RMB 12.43B is cost of sales, leaving an 89.5% gross margin against 87.6% in the second quarter. Operating costs take RMB 6.74B and tax RMB 10.06B; net profit is RMB 88.98B, of which RMB 54.43B belongs to the parent and RMB 34.55B to the minority holders of the subsidiaries. Quarter derived as the nine-month statement less the half-year statement. Operating profit here is before impairments, other income, investment income and fair-value changes, so it is not the filing's operating-profit subtotal of RMB 99,039.5M. Taxes, finance, G&A & selling = taxes & surcharges 1,366.8 + finance costs 1,206.4 + G&A 811.6 + selling 157.8. Other income & gains = other income 1,402.5 + investment income 418.4 + asset-disposal gains 46.7 + non-operating income 4.8. Impairments & other = asset impairments 606.6 + credit impairments 14.6 + non-operating expenses 2.7.

The numbers

Revenue

¥118.71B

+613.18% Y/Y · +19.30% Q/Q

Gross margin

89.53%

from 87.59% in Q2

Net profit to parent

¥54.43B

+3.01% Q/Q on +19.38% group

Minority share of profit

38.8%

from 29.1% in Q2

Op cash flow

¥123.60B

from ¥88.59B in Q2

Customer advances

¥7.04B

from ¥1.26B in June

CXMT Q3 2026 · RMB billions unless stated

Line	Q3 26	Q2 26	Q3 25	Y/Y
Sales
Revenue	118.71	99.51	16.65	+613.18%
Cost of sales	12.43	—	—
Gross margin	89.53%	87.59%	—
Profit
Group net profit	88.98	74.54	(1.89)
to the parent	54.43	52.84	(2.95)
to minority holders	34.55	21.69	—
R&D input (incl. capitalised)	4.21	—	2.74	+53.83%
Cash and balance sheet
Operating cash flow	123.60	88.59	8.72
Capital spending (cash)	15.41	—	12.08	+27.5%
Cash + trading assets	353.62	182.26	—
Borrowings, all maturities	137.67	140.45	—
Contract liabilities	7.04	1.26	—
Other non-current liabilities	39.70	8.75	—

Source: CXMT 2026 third-quarter report, SSE, October 30, 2026 (unaudited); Q2 and Q3 flows derived from cumulative statements. Notes ↓

The third-quarter report carries a nine-month income statement and cash-flow statement and no notes. Every quarterly flow here is a difference of cumulative figures; the first-quarter figures come from the prospectus review note. Cash and trading assets are monetary funds plus trading financial assets.

The company's own explanation of the quarter is that prices rose and the product mix improved. Management's words on the results call, in our translation: "the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent was 3%, which is mainly determined by the group's equity structure in its subsidiaries." Decode: the company is telling you, in its first results call as a listed issuer, that the shares it listed own a shrinking part of the business it reports. It then says why. Revenue and profit at the two controlled subsidiaries, Changxin Xinqiao (长鑫新桥) and Changxin Jidian (长鑫集电, the Beijing fab), grew more than 50% quarter on quarter, and the parent's ownership of both "is relatively low."

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The headline numbers are above. The 10 sections below carry the mechanism, the peer read, the valuation work, and the dated tests that decide it.

Seven quarters: the level before the delta
Whose profit it is
The build came back
Connecting the dots
The December bar
Valuation
The strongest case against this read
What we'd watch
Grading the August call
Bottom line

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Sources

CXMT (长鑫科技) — 2026 third-quarter report (2026年第三季度报告), SSE, October 30, 2026, unaudited: Q3 revenue 118,714,029,752.18 (+613.18%); nine-month revenue 269,024,106,510.18 (+738.51%); Q3 total profit 99,041,551,750.11; Q3 net profit attributable 54,434,826,547.23; Q3 ex-items 55,237,118,776.16 (+4,070.56%); nine-month attributable 132,040,054,067.23; nine-month operating cash flow 254,751,254,805.69 (+1,864.52%); Q3 basic EPS 0.8376; Q3 R&D input 4,211,514,375.97 (+53.83%); Q3 gross margin 89.53%, +1.94 points Q/Q; nine-month cost of sales 35,369,495,475.19; net profit 196,532,288,837.68; minority profit 64,492,234,770.45; income tax 19,654,704,254.60; fair-value change (4,698,711,649.02); asset impairment (882,804,063.54); September 30 balances: monetary funds 285,164,795,853.74, trading financial assets 68,456,749,947.98, receivables 9,310,486,183.37, inventory 39,227,183,359.56, fixed assets 184,899,956,594.73, construction in progress 44,234,751,663.98, total assets 672,535,210,198.62, short-term borrowings 22,052,298,208.90, current portion of non-current liabilities 17,852,460,242.13, long-term borrowings 97,765,663,829.70, contract liabilities 7,036,358,019.61, other non-current liabilities 39,698,280,334.88, equity attributable 256,876,312,185.38, minority equity 171,273,771,554.26, total equity 428,150,083,739.64, share capital 67,884,099,077.00, capital reserve 93,502,159,103.76; nine-month cash: other operating receipts 33,460,665,908.02, taxes paid 34,771,146,757.42, capital spending 36,998,366,035.08, investor receipts 76,825,965,384.68 (of which subsidiaries' minority 10,508,960,000.00); Alibaba Cloud 3.42% holder.
CXMT — 2026 half-year report (2026年半年度报告), SSE, August 28, 2026: H1 revenue 150,310,076,758.00; cost of sales 22,934,480,656.80; net profit 107,549,591,103.65; minority profit 29,944,363,583.65; income tax 9,595,850,238.52; operating cash flow 131,155,666,051.14; other operating receipts 2,396,467,735.14; investor receipts 8,562,283,622.11 (subsidiaries 8,555,672,000.00); depreciation 145.10亿 (+27.85%); June 30 balances: monetary funds 143,426,479,729.06, trading financial assets 38,832,026,912.27, receivables 6,653,098,783.44, inventory 35,129,620,577.40 (gross: raw materials 7,087,067,426.56, WIP 19,110,355,338.51, finished goods 9,502,509,413.40), fixed assets 181,563,429,601.24, CIP 36,777,895,056.17, contract liabilities 1,255,560,706.48, other non-current liabilities 8,753,839,327.28 (all payable to other holders of consolidated structured entities, Anhui Xinyidai and Qihang Chuangxin), minority equity 136,027,322,120.28; Xinqiao 30.68% held / 73.01% of votes; Jidian 31.72% / 75.32%; DDR 46.22% and LPDDR 52.02% of H1 revenue.
CXMT — investor relations activity record, Q3 results call, October 30, 2026 (quotations are tkal's translations): Q2 revenue 995亿; Q3 operating margin 83.43%; Q3 operating cash flow 1,236亿, up nearly 40%; debt ratio 36.34%; nine-month gross margin 86.85%; Q4 revenue to keep growing and gross margin stable; LTAs negotiated with several leading customers; prices "not much different" from overseas makers; Xinqiao and Jidian revenue and profit up more than 50% Q/Q; Jidian capital injection in August; 4F² DDR5 RDIMM samples by year-end; fifth platform at least 50% more die per wafer; impairments 0.38亿 credit, 4.70亿 inventory, 4.12亿 long-lived assets; excess proceeds 130亿 R&D and 50亿 test base; buyback 10亿–20亿.
CXMT — notice on nine-month impairment provisions, October 30, 2026: total 920,820,520.75; inventory 470,392,194.57; CIP 297,435,454.89; fixed assets 114,976,414.08; credit 38,016,457.21.
CXMT — voluntary nine-month results preview, October 17, 2026: revenue 2,650.00亿–2,700.00亿; attributable profit 1,310.00亿–1,325.00亿; 2025 nine-month revenue 320.84亿 and attributable (52.80)亿.
CXMT — STAR Market IPO prospectus (招股说明书), July 22, 2026: Q1 2026 (reviewed) revenue 5,080,014.55万 (Q1 2025 620,169.05万), net profit 3,301,152.51万, attributable 2,476,203.15万, operating cash flow 4,256,599.29万 (Q1 2025 19,951.16万); FY2025 revenue 617.99亿; FY2025 net profit 714,423.71万, attributable 187,485.94万; operating cash flow FY2025 3,651,981.33万, FY2024 689,745.85万, FY2023 (727,162.07)万; capital spending FY2023 4,365,833.98万, FY2024 7,122,968.11万, FY2025 4,973,920.33万; H1 2025 revenue 1,543,792.46万 and net profit (408,751.86)万.
Notes. Q2 = H1 − Q1; Q3 = nine months − H1; Q4 2025 = full year − nine months; Q3 2025 = nine months 2025 − H1 2025. Minority share = (group net profit − profit to parent) ÷ group net profit. Inventory ÷ quarterly cost of sales uses the Q3 derived cost of sales of RMB 12.43B; 290 days = 3.15 × 92. Cash + trading assets = monetary funds + trading financial assets; borrowings = short-term + long-term + current portion of non-current liabilities. The December bar assumes Q4 revenue +10%, Q3's 74.96% net margin and 38.8% minority share. USD at ~6.66 CNY/USD, approximate.
tkal pages in the rope: CXMT H1 2026 (capex call graded here); Micron Q4 FY26 ($12.3B customer deposits, 22.7% of $54.23B revenue); SK hynix 3Q26 (LTAs with 14 customers); Longsys Q3 2026 (gross margin 44.74% from 61.26%; supplier prepayments RMB 2.21B); Biwin Q3 2026 (prepayments RMB 7.38B); Nanya Q3 2026 (85.7% gross margin); Samsung 3Q26 (69.3% gross margin; advances ₩3.81T).
Unverified market data: CXMT close RMB 41.72 on November 2, 2026, prior close RMB 41.80 (Tencent quote feed); RMB 58.01 close on the half-year reaction session per cxmt-h1-26; issue price RMB 8.66.

CXMT Q3 2026: Revenue Rose 19%, the Parent's Profit 3%. The Growth Is in Fabs It Mostly Doesn't Own.

The setup

The numbers

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