AI Capital Flows
Vendor financing & private credit
How the build-out is paid for — financing receivables, prepayments, securitisation and the credit that sits underneath the capex line.
6 dated pieces, newest first. Each carries the numbers behind it. Nothing here is investment advice.
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Earnings ·
Avnet Q4 FY26 — The Upcycle Is Real. Suppliers Paid for June, the Revolver Paid for the Summer
Avnet Q4 FY26, read forensically: record sales of $8,295.4M (+47.7%) and adjusted EPS of $2.28, with fiscal 2026 operating cash flow of −$280.9M, payables at 99.8% of inventory, and revolver plus securitization borrowings up $1.218B in the 52 days after quarter end. The call: the October 3 balance sheet shows who funded the growth
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Earnings ·
Oracle Q1 FY27 — The Customer Became the Lender.
Oracle Q1 FY27 earnings synthesis: revenue $19,345M (+29.61%), cloud infrastructure $7,388M (+120.73%), non-GAAP EPS $1.92, record operating cash flow $23,103M — of which $11,363M is customer prepayments carrying a significant financing component, a line that was zero a year ago. Capex $28,499M, 147.32% of revenue
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Earnings ·
Biwin (688525) H1 2026 — The Margin Is a Procurement Bet, and It's Locked for 24 Months
Biwin Storage H1 2026 deep dive: pre-announced revenue RMB 15–16B and net profit RMB 7.0–7.5B, a swing from a RMB ~226M loss. A fabless module maker printing a 53% gross margin
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Earnings ·
CRWV Q2 2026 — The Customer Was Never the Risk. The Lender Is.
CoreWeave Q2 2026, read forensically: revenue doubled to $2.58B and the backlog compounded past $104B, and none of that is the question. Interest expense grew 140% — faster than the 112% revenue growth the headline sells — while management raised the capex bill to $35–39B in the same breath as the revenue guide
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Earnings ·
NBIS Q2 2026 — $2.25B of Cash Flow, and Almost None of It Was Nebius's
Nebius Q2 2026, read forensically: revenue grew 454% to $582.3M and adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $236.2M — and neither is the story. The story is the $2.25B of operating cash flow the market cheered, because ~$1.2B was deferred-revenue prepayments and ~$1.19B was collecting old receivables
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Earnings ·
SIMO Q2 2026 — The Controller Cycle Turns, and the Mix Went Enterprise
Silicon Motion Q2 2026 earnings deep dive: revenue grew 127% year-over-year to $451.0M (+32% sequentially), non-GAAP gross margin reached 50.2%, and non-GAAP operating margin roughly doubled to 23.1% on $104.2M of operating income. Non-GAAP EPS was $2.43 (GAAP $3.99, flattered by a ~$74.7M investment gain)
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